Using @RISK to Determine Potential Economic Losses to Jujube Production in China Resulting from Damage by <i>Carposina sasakii</i> (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae)

Abstract Carposina sasakii Matsumura (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) is a serious fruit-boring pest in eastern Asia. In China, it one of the most harmful and common pests deciduous fruit trees, causing an annual loss more than billion yuan. However, economic losses to jujube industry as result C. damage remain undefined. this study, we collected related data on sasakii, market price jujube, costs its prevention management. The potential China's caused by were predicted using @RISK (Palisade, Raleigh, NC) software stochastic simulation method, which universal model assessment for economically important flies. Our results showed that total potentially are approximately 8,643.41–350,524.15 million RMB (RMB legal tender China; 1,338.00–54,261.14 USD) if was not managed 2,487.15–123,242.12 (about 385.01–19, 077.88 when management applied. Therefore, 841.83–244,144.06 (approximately 130.32–37,793.50 can be logically retrieved after controlling pest. As result, suggest organizations practitioners strengthen control measures reduce risk decreasing infestation level production and, thus, infestation.